Another bright spot on the horizon

September 14, 2008

The Oregonian published and article by Dave Hogan a couple of weeks ago that stated what many of us have been thinking.  Mr. Hogan wrote, “The downturn in Oregon’s economy is not expected to grow worse but will continue into 2009, then begin a slow recovery in the second half of next year, state economists said Thursday.”  This statement says a couple of things that are important.  First, you will continue to hear from the naysayers that we are still free falling and there is no end in site so, it is still better to rent.  The State Economists are stating that it is not expected to get worse.  As the story I wrote about last month referenced, our local market is only down 1.1% year to date.  So, if we are only down 1.1% as of August continuing to rent will be one of the biggest investment mistakes of your life.  What little our market may slide, if any, will be eclipsed by a rise in interest rates after the first of the year as the market tightens up.  The next 6 months will be the best time to buy a home that we will probably see in the next 10 years.  Second, the end is believed to be in site.  With every report that shows that building starts are down, as mentioned in this story, it should be acknowledged as good news.  This means that due to the fact the building permits have been down since last November, if they remain down until next spring, we will be able to reduce the current inventories in time for Spring & Summer of ’09.

 

For a review of the completed story see this link: http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/08/economists_say_downturn_to_con.html

 

I feel that over the next few months we are going to be hearing more and more good news.  That is not to say that all will be good.   There will be plenty to satisfy the naysayers appetite, but there will be more and more signs of improvement and more importantly signs of opportunities that buyers should be seizing in real estate.  Remember, Real Estate has doubled about every 10 years locally and nationally.  I believe that this is the beginning of the next 10 years.  Will you sit this one out again or take advantage of it?

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